WEEKLY CONFLICT BRIEF

MAY 24 - MAY 31, 2026 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Lebanon condemned Israel's tactics amid stalled US‑Iran talks. Ukraine struck a Russian refinery and lost drones. The US fired a missile at an Iranian‑bound ship. Israel captured Beaufort Castle. KEY DEVELOPMENTS: 1. Lebanon issued a statement calling Israel's operations a "scorched earth" policy. The comment comes as US‑Iran negotiations stall. 2. Kyiv targeted one of Russia's largest oil refineries. Details are limited. 3. A Russian tanker, Voyager, delivered oil from Sakhalin to Japanese companies. The cargo arrived at ENEOS in Kii. 4. Iran claimed a US surveillance drone was downed. No further confirmation. 5. Israeli forces seized Beaufort Castle near Nabatiyeh after days of fighting with Hezbollah. 6. China reported a slight slowdown in factory activity in May. 7. Russian Battlegroup North destroyed 31 Ukrainian heavy drones in 24 hours. 8. Analysts warn Belarus could serve as a launchpad for a new Russian offensive. 9. A US fighter jet fired a missile at an Iranian‑bound cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz. 10. Ukrainian forces lost 70 heavy hexacopters, according to a battlegroup spokesman. 11. President Trump warned Tehran that a deal would end if not reached. 12. A fuel depot in Rostov Region caught fire after drone fragments fell. 13. Trump said a US‑Iran deal is near but military options remain. 14. Trump stated Iran will not develop or buy nuclear weapons. 15. Trump said the US left Iran's military alone, citing Iraq lessons. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS: - Lebanon's condemnation may pressure Israel to alter tactics. - The refinery strike could disrupt Russian fuel supplies. - The US missile strike demonstrates continued enforcement of the Strait blockade. - Israeli capture of Beaufort Castle expands its foothold in southern Lebanon. - Belarus concerns suggest Russia may seek new fronts. OUTLOOK: - Expect continued US naval activity near the Strait of Hormuz. - Ukraine may pursue further strikes on Russian infrastructure. - Israel may increase operations in Lebanon. - Diplomatic talks between the US and Iran may remain stalled.