Saudi Arabia is nearing the point of no return – and Israel is waiting for it

Secretive intelligence cooperation against the Houthis could draw Riyadh into an anti-Iran coalition and transform the balance of power across the Middle East In the past few days, Israeli media has been actively talking about contacts between Saudi Arabia and Israel, facilitated by the US Central Command (CENTCOM). Reportedly, Riyadh is seeking intelligence from Israel to counter the Houthis. The very fact that such contacts are taking place raises a question: is Saudi Arabia preparing to take an even more significant and risky step, one that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East? Escalating tensions with Yemen’s Houthis are compelling the Saudi leadership to seek help where it can be found. The Houthis have missiles and drones, enabling them to strike Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and threaten shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. For Riyadh, this presents a military, economic, and reputational challenge. This new phase of the conflict jeopardizes oil facilities, maritime routes, and sabotages plans to transform Saudi Arabia into a leading global investment and logistics hub. Israel, for its part, has amassed considerable experience monitoring the activities of the Houthis and Iran-linked groups. Its intelligence capabilities – including satellite surveillance, signals intelligence, and the analysis of troop movements across the Red Sea and Persian Gulf – could be valuable to the Saudis. The only question is, what price is Riyadh willing to pay for access to this intelligence information? Things become even more apparent when we consider Washington’s stance. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked US President Donald Trump for assistance in striking Houthi positions. Trump declined direct military intervention, proposing instead to expand intelligence sharing and target-selection assistance. A meeting between the Crown Prince and CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper has been confirmed by Saudi state media.

Washington is prepared to provide intelligence support but does not intend to shoulder the main burden of a new campaign in Yemen – at least not now. This raises a key question: has Riyadh decided to take a step it had long and carefully avoided? Until recently, Saudi Arabia sought to maintain cooperation with the US while preserving the possibility of normalizing relations with Israel in the long term; however, it avoided entering into a direct confrontation with Iran. This approach allowed it to maneuver between competing power centers. Even after the outbreak of a major regional war, Riyadh did not want to be viewed as a direct participant in the war and kept channels of communication with Tehran open. Read more A new strait crisis is brewing in the Red Sea Military cooperation with Israel could upset this balance. Iran might perceive the transfer of Israeli intelligence to Saudi Arabia not merely as technical assistance in fighting the Houthis, but as Saudi Arabia’s integration into an emerging anti-Iran bloc. Tehran views the Houthis not in isolation, but as part of a broader regional architecture designed to contain its adversaries. The risk for Saudi Arabia extends beyond Iran’s potential reaction. Direct cooperation with Israel remains a highly sensitive issue for the Arab world, especially as the Palestinian issue remains unresolved. Riyadh will have to explain why military rapprochement with Israel precedes the political settlement that Saudi diplomacy had long cited as a prerequisite for normalization. This is precisely why the mediation of CENTCOM is of fundamental importance. The US command acts as a kind of political buffer. Saudi Arabia can obtain the necessary intelligence without acknowledging the existence of a bilateral military mechanism, while Israel can defend shared regional interests without a formal agreement with Riyadh. This arrangement allows both sides to deny the form