Trump’s China strategy is closer to Kissinger than Biden

An interview with Xiang Lanxin explores why Trump may seek a broader bargain with China and what it could mean for Taiwan, Russia and the EU US President Donald Trump’s arrival in China this week is being treated as far more than another diplomatic photo opportunity. Relations between Washington and Beijing remain tense, competition between the two powers stretches across almost every domain, and yet both sides appear increasingly aware that uncontrolled confrontation would carry enormous costs. Against that backdrop, the prospect of a broader geopolitical bargain is once again entering the discussion. According to Xiang Lanxin, visiting professor at East China Normal University and research fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, Trump isn’t approaching China in the same ideological spirit that defined the Biden administration. The atmosphere in Washington, he argues, has shifted noticeably. He spoke to Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs and research director of the Valdai International Discussion Club. Read more China reveals four red lines ahead of Trump visit Fyodor Lukyanov: What are the economic objectives of China and the US? Xiang Lanxin: The economy is undoubtedly a bargaining chip. China wants fewer restrictions, greater market access, and perhaps a reduction in barriers in the high-tech sector, that is a key priority. The mood is competitive, but judging by the mood in Washington, the Trump team is much more conciliatory than the Biden administration, even in the high-tech sector. The ‘small backyard, high fence’ approach isn’t one the current White House is keen on. They realize it won’t work, as the administration is heavily influenced by the tech industry, particularly in the fields of semiconductors and cutting-edge technologies. There are many such people on Vice President J.D. Vance’s team. History shows that it is impossible to stop technology from spreading across borders.

Otherwise, the UK would still be dominating industry today. That’s simply not possible. People in the high-tech sector understand this very well. In that sense, I believe there are some positive signs. Fyodor Lukyanov: But in the case of the United States, are there no illusions regarding relations with China, or are some changes still possible? Xiang Lanxin: Of course, they are possible. We might even be talking about a ‘big deal’, which is exactly what Trump wants. Of course, there is no guarantee that they will actually be able to reach one. By a ‘big deal’, the Trump administration means an agreement that goes beyond the economy and touches on geopolitics, that is, the politics of the great powers. There are two key issues Trump would like to discuss with China. The first is how to stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Stabilize, precisely, because under the Biden administration the balance was seriously disrupted. Let me remind you that Biden made four statements deviating from the principle of strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan (formal recognition of the PRC’s territorial integrity while maintaining separate relations with Taipei. – Ed.). That’s why Trump is proceeding cautiously. He wants to conclude a genuine agreement. I do not know whether this will take the form of a joint statement or some other format, but it is clear that he intends to take action. For China, even limited progress on the Taiwan issue would be a significant achievement. It would mean that the US would adopt a tougher stance against Taiwanese independence. Read more When titans talk: What’s at stake for Trump’s China visit? Previously, the phrasing ‘we do not support’ was used, and it left room for maneuver. In other words, roughly speaking: we, the Americans, don’t support it, but if the Taiwanese themselves want