No war, no peace – just Hormuz holding the world hostage

The US and Iran have kept diplomacy alive, but neither side is ready to surrender its leverage Recently, US President Donald Trump said he is satisfied with the situation regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the progress in negotiations with Iran. US Vice President J.D. Vance expressed similar sentiments earlier, noting that they succeeded in creating a mechanism to prevent further escalation between Israel, Lebanon, and Hezbollah, and laid the foundation for a future peace agreement during the talks in Switzerland. At first glance, this looks like a diplomatic breakthrough, but the reality is more complex. The Trump administration’s optimistic rhetoric doesn’t change the fact that the negotiation process remains highly volatile, and trust between the parties is minimal or even nonexistent. Moreover, while Vance led the negotiations in Switzerland, Trump, in his characteristic manner, once again lashed out at Iran, effectively jeopardizing the efforts of his own negotiating team. As a result, the Iranian side has temporarily withdrawn from the negotiations, although the Trump administration is trying to downplay this episode. Nevertheless, it’s premature to say the negotiations have failed. Subsequent statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi demonstrated that despite its irritation, Tehran is not interested in immediately disrupting the negotiation process. On the contrary, the Iranian side continues to leave room for diplomacy, while demonstrating that it is not prepared to make concessions under pressure and public threats. Currently, a temporary negotiation framework is in effect – a sort of memorandum that could remain valid for another 50-60 days. This is not a full-fledged agreement, but merely a pause that each side is using to its own advantage. For the US, this is an opportunity to demonstrate that the crisis is manageable and to reduce risks regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanese front.

For Iran, it is a way to buy time, reduce sanctions pressure, restore diplomatic maneuverability, and test the extent to which Washington is truly capable of controlling its own rhetoric and the actions of its allies. Read more How Iran learned to stop worrying and live with war This is precisely why the current situation cannot be described as either a success or a failure. It is an intermediate stage in which common ground remains, but there are no guarantees that the diplomatic process will remain active. Any sudden move, such as a new threat from Trump, Israel’s operation in Lebanon, an attack on regional infrastructure, or a harsh statement from Tehran, could quickly reduce these efforts to nothing. Therefore, unconditional pessimism is as misguided as excessive optimism. The negotiations have not failed. The communication channel is functioning, the parties continue to exchange signals, and the timeframe offers a chance for further coordination. But this opportunity is rather limited and unstable. Iran, as always, is trying to win time and make the most of the diplomatic pause. The US is trying to portray the situation as a manageable process, even though it occasionally creates new risks on its own. The situation with regard to the Strait of Hormuz also remains uncertain. Formally, the US and Iran have reportedly agreed to establish a communication line to ensure the safe passage of ships. Trump has hastened to declare that the strait is “fully open.” However, Iranian sources paint a completely different picture. According to them, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has not granted passage to any vessels. This means that even at the basic information level, the parties and their associated media channels are describing events differently. This is precisely why there is no certainty regarding the strait. American political rhetoric, the demonstrations of control by Iran, and market signals all tell a