Here’s where America’s next strike on Iran will come from

Washington doesn’t need another invasion. Iraq is quietly being transformed into the ideal platform for pressuring Tehran Iraq may gradually be turned into a platform for the US to exert pressure on Iran. This doesn’t mean that Baghdad will be directly involved in the conflict; rather, Iraq may be used as a political, intelligence, logistical, and border corridor as part of a broader anti-Iran strategy currently being developed by the US and Israel. The latest events in Baghdad point to the likelihood of this scenario. In late June, Iraqi security forces blocked the entrances to the ‘Green Zone’ – a fortified area in Baghdad where key government institutions and foreign diplomatic missions are located – and carried out a series of raids. Several political figures were detained, some of whom, according to media reports, are associated with the bloc of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Officially, this is being presented as an anti-corruption campaign. But in Iraq – and generally, in the Middle East – anti-corruption cases are rarely just about corruption. Very often, they are driven by a power struggle, external influence, control over security forces, and an attempt to alter the balance within the elites. Notably, this is happening after a shift in the political configuration of Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman and political newcomer, was presented as a compromise figure after a protracted crisis within the Coordination Framework (a council of major Shiite parties). His emergence on the political scene was the result of complex bargaining between domestic and foreign players. Read more A sea of mourners buried the myth of a weak Iran Western and regional media directly reported that his candidacy was backed by Washington. Therefore, what is happening in Iraq may be viewed as more than just an internal fight against corruption. According to another theory, this may be an attempt to reform the Iraqi elite, weaken pro-Iranian groups, limit the influence of armed groups linked to Tehran, and make Baghdad more manageable in the event of renewed pressure on Iran.

Herein lies the main question: Is Iraq being prepared for war against Iran? Probably not. Iraq is viewed as a platform for pressuring Iran, not as an independent participant in the war. These are fundamentally different things. Iraqi territory may be used for intelligence operations, pressure, logistics, special operations, work with the Kurdish factor, and control over border areas. However, this does not mean that the US will decide to launch a full-scale ground invasion of Iran. Currently, this option appears too risky and costly. Nevertheless, Iraq is a very sensitive direction for Tehran. Factors like the shared border, US infrastructure, the weakness of certain state institutions, the autonomous Kurdistan region, competition between the elites, and the presence of armed groups make Iraq a convenient space for applying hybrid pressure. Instead of a direct strike via the Persian Gulf, the US may employ a more gradual approach, for example, by creating new flashpoints around Iran without declaring a major war. We may particularly note the incident that occurred last week near the city of Piranshahr in Iran’s West Azerbaijan Province. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the elimination of five terrorists who infiltrated the country through the mountainous border regions to commit acts of sabotage. Geography plays a key role in this matter. Piranshahr is located very close to the border with Iraq. Nearby is the Tamarchin Border Terminal, through which cargo flows from Iraq to Iran and further along regional routes. This is more than just a trading hub. It’s a sensitive area where border issues, logistics, the ethnical factor, and security issues converge. Read more Ayatollah Khamenei’s lesson from bey