Türkiye is one missile deal away from crossing Russia’s red line

The proposed transfer of US-made long-range weapons to Ukraine could turn a strategic partnership into a costly confrontation Recently, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Moscow was still waiting for clarification from the US and Türkiye regarding possible arms supplies to Ukraine. Russia expects a response, as this matter directly affects not only bilateral relations but also the prospects for resolving the Ukraine crisis. The issue goes far beyond the scope of yet another military-technical deal. In July, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for preventing the spread of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Black Sea region and advocated for the continuation of Ankara-mediated negotiations between Moscow and Kiev within the framework of the so-called Istanbul format. Türkiye emphasized that the security of shipping and energy infrastructure is of fundamental importance to it. The Russian side, in turn, points out an obvious contradiction. According to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Ankara and Washington, in their contacts with Moscow, stated that they sent Kiev signals about the unacceptability of attacks in the Black Sea. However, Moscow has not received a public or equally strong response from Türkiye and the US concerning Ukrainian drone strikes on commercial vessels and the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk. The Russian Foreign Ministry also warned that strikes on infrastructure and vessels used for delivering Western weapons to Ukraine would continue until the security threats in the region of the Azov and Black seas are eliminated. Leaving diplomatic language aside, the question is very simple: can Türkiye simultaneously supply Kiev with weapons capable of being used against Russian targets and demand that Moscow continue to consider it a neutral intermediary? Read more The Third World War may be fought with weapons built in garages What do the American documents actually state? The US Congressional Record, published on August 6, shows two notifications about the proposed permanent transfer of American weapons from Turkish stockpiles to Ukraine.

The first package includes 12 M270 MLRS launchers, 2,524 M26 unguided rockets with cluster munitions, and 47,000 M509A1 203mm cluster artillery shells. Their initial procurement price is listed at $255.9 million. The second notification concerns 70 M39 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles with an initial procurement price of approximately $28 million. In total this amounts to approximately $283.9 million. However, it would be incorrect to automatically assume that this is the price of the current contract since the terms of the potential deal between Ankara and Kiev have not been publicly disclosed. Another point is equally important. The documents do not prove that the weapons have already been transferred to Kiev. They only confirm that the Turkish government proposed re-export, and the US Department of State notified Congress of its readiness to approve it after the statutory review period. Ankara cites the desire to get rid of outdated weapons and redirect funds toward modernizing its armed forces as the reason for the re-export. Kiev, according to the documents, intends to use these systems to enhance its offensive and defensive firepower. This formulation makes the situation particularly serious. This isn’t about armored vehicles, communications equipment, or individual commercial drones; M39 ATACMS missiles are capable of engaging targets at ranges of up to 165 km and carry cluster munitions. Combined with M270 launchers and thousands of rocket and artillery munitions, this constitutes a comprehensive package of enhanced long-range firepower systems. Its possible use will inevitably entail losses among Russian troops and the risk of strikes deep into Russian territory. Read more Six months ago, Iran was supposed to