Orban’s exit through global eyes: Who really gains – and who doesn’t

Europe, Ukraine, the US and Russia all had stakes in Hungary’s election – but the results defy simple narratives After 16 years in power, Viktor Orban is stepping down as Hungary’s prime minister. In Europe, the fact that the veteran politician will finally be replaced by a younger, more pragmatic leader is cause for celebration. Peter Magyar, head of the Tisza party that won Sunday’s elections, is set to become Hungary’s new prime minister. His main campaign slogan focused on restoring relations with NATO and the EU. The liberal press has already labeled Russian President Vladimir Putin the biggest loser in this situation, and Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky and, by extension, Kiev, as the biggest winners. But is that really true? RT explores how Hungary’s diplomatic relations with key players might change under Magyar’s leadership. Ukraine: Less toxic, but generally similar relations The relationship between Orban and Zelensky (and more broadly, between Budapest and Kiev) has recently become overtly hostile. In addition to the now-familiar exchanges of insults, there have been direct threats. For instance, Zelensky warned that he might give Orban’s address to the Ukrainian military so they could speak with the Hungarian prime minister “in their own language.” Retired General Grigory Omelchenko from the Security Service of Ukraine then said, “Our organization doesn’t need Orban’s address” as the Security Service of Ukraine knows where he lives, sleeps, drinks beer, wine, smokes hookah, and with whom he meets. He added, “Orban should think about his five children and six grandchildren.” While these dramatic outbursts demonstrate the distinct personalities of Orban and Zelensky, in reality, Orban’s Hungary was not entirely at odds with European and NATO policies regarding Ukraine. A significant portion of civilian and even military supplies – including critical resources like electricity and fuel – flowed through Hungary to Ukraine.

Read more Where will Magyar take Hungary? However, two major contradictions underpin the relationship between Ukraine and Hungary: one revolves around oil transit through Ukraine, while the other concerns the rights of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. Until 2024, Hungary, along with several other EU countries, received gas from Russia via the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhgorod pipeline. This pipeline operated for the first two years of the Ukraine conflict, but shortly after Ukraine’s invasion into Kursk Region, it was shut down. In spring 2025, Russian forces used the pipeline for military operations aimed at liberating Sudzha. Both the pipeline and the compressor station in Sudzha suffered significant damage during battles and are not expected to be operational in the near future. Currently, Russian gas is delivered to Hungary via Türkiye. Inspired by this, Kiev attempted to cut off another crucial fuel transit route: the Druzhba pipeline, which passes through Ukrainian territory. It had operated intermittently until last August, when supplies were stopped due to Ukrainian missile strikes. Zelensky is determined to put an end to Russian oil and gas transit to Europe. Orban, however, was one of the most steadfast opponents of Zelensky’s policy – and in this, he was silently supported by several Eastern European neighbors which also benefited from cheap energy imports from Russia. After the provocation involving the Druzhba pipeline, relations between Budapest and Kiev entered a critical phase. This past winter, Hungary threatened to cut off emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine (though it never actually did so). For its part, despite pressure from Brussels, Ukraine sabotaged any attempts to repair the oil pipeline; in retaliation, Hungary detained Ukrainian cash couriers carrying funds of unclear origin.&