Beijing can no longer treat Moscow as a junior partner

Why the West still misunderstands the Russia-China relationship Russia and China are moving, slowly but unmistakably, toward a structural alliance that is reshaping the global balance of power. But the two sides are progressing through this transformation at different speeds. Moscow has largely accepted the logic of deep strategic interdependence. Beijing, by contrast, still behaves as though it can preserve a carefully managed partnership in which China remains the senior partner while minimizing its own obligations. That model is reaching its limits. For years, the dominant narrative in Western policy circles has been that Russia has become the junior partner in an unequal relationship. Brussels think tanks, Washington analysts and even many Chinese commentators have repeated the same formula: Russia supplies raw materials and China supplies everything else. Berlin-based MERICS has described the relationship as “fundamentally unbalanced” and Intereconomics called it “symbiotic but deeply asymmetrical.” Other researchers have portrayed the Russia-China-US triangle as one in which Washington still holds the decisive advantage. Yet this interpretation misses something important. Even while Western analysts obsessively measured asymmetry, many Chinese scholars privately acknowledged that the relationship was being driven less by hierarchy than by geopolitical pressure. Professor Feng Shaolei of East China Normal University has argued that external circumstances, rather than relative status, have always been the true engine of the partnership. NATO expansion pushed Moscow and Beijing closer together while US tariffs accelerated the process further. Sanctions pressure on Russia gave China discounted resources and gave Russia guaranteed markets as each side increasingly possessed what the other lacked. Read more The EU’s sanctions fever: From Russia to China, a crisis expands The numbers tell the story clearly enough. By the end of 2024, Russia had become China’s largest oil supplier, delivering 108.5 million tonnes.

But energy is only one dimension of the relationship. Between January and September 2025, Russian nickel exports to China doubled to $1 billion, copper exports surged 88% to $2 billion, while shipments of aluminum and metal ores jumped by around 50%. Agriculture has become another strategic pillar as Russia, now the world’s leading wheat exporter, signed a long-term agreement in 2023 to supply China with 70 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds over a twelve-year period. And unlike Middle Eastern energy routes, Russian pipelines don’t pass through vulnerable maritime chokepoints. That reality became far more important once the geopolitical environment deteriorated. Washington’s strategy was straightforward: isolate Russia financially while frightening China into limiting cooperation through the threat of secondary sanctions. By late 2023 and early 2024, major Chinese financial institutions including Bank of China and CITIC had sharply reduced direct transactions with Russian entities after new US restrictions were announced. The pressure had some effect. Chinese state energy companies cut purchases temporarily after sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil in early 2025. Shandong Port Group banned sanctioned vessels from entering its terminals. Western analysts celebrated what they described as growing Chinese caution. But the strategy contained a fundamental weakness. Secondary sanctions work only when alternatives exist and once instability threatened key global energy routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, Russia’s role changed dramatically. Roughly a third of global seaborne oil trade passes through Hormuz, while more than half of China’s imported oil comes from the Middle East. In those circumstances, Russian pipelines stopped being merely commercial infrastructure and became a strategic necessity. Read