Israel-Lebanon peace talks: Future negotiations depend on 'confidence-building measures'

Angela Diffley is pleased to welcome Bilal Y. Saab, Senior Managing Director of TRENDS Research and Advisory. According to Saab, Lebanon stands at a fragile but meaningful inflection point. For the first time in years, the government is committed to reform, is fundamentally “pro-Lebanon” and rejects interference from external actors. The central challenge remains Hezbollah, an entrenched, hybrid actor operating across political, military, and financial domains. Rather than advocating for abrupt or violent confrontation, he emphasises a gradualist strategy: one that leverages legal, institutional, and economic pressures to constrain Hezbollah’s operational space while preserving civil peace.

He says this must be paired with credible state-building efforts, particularly through strengthening the Lebanese Armed Forces with sustained international support. The United States remains the decisive external actor for Lebanon, while France plays a secondary but still potentially constructive diplomatic role. Meanwhile, China’s engagement is best understood through its economic priorities and preference for multilateral diplomacy rather than direct intervention.