The last exit from the Ukraine conflict may already be closing

The ‘Spirit of Anchorage’ offered a face-saving compromise for everyone involved. Now it is running out of time. In Russia-US relations, a tradition has emerged of coining catchy phrases to describe periods of rapprochement between Washington and Moscow. For example, the French term ‘détente’ (easing) was used to describe the situational compromises between the Soviet Union and the US at the height of the Cold War. And then there’s the infamous blunder by the US delegation at the 2009 Geneva talks, when a symbolic red button was presented to the Russian delegation with the word ‘peregruzka’ (overload) instead of ‘perezagruzka’ (reset) printed on it, thus ushering in the so-called ‘reset’ era at the time of the Obama administration. After US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the first US-Russia summit to be held in years, a new term emerged: the ‘Spirit of Anchorage’ , which became a sort of political meme characterizing the interaction between the White House and the Kremlin. Despite the varied interpretations expressed in the official statements of the two parties and the complex nature of the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, the essence of the agreements can be boiled down to a few main points: Firstly, US sanctions are to be lifted and comprehensive bilateral relations developed (in politics, economics, culture, etc.) following the resolution of the Ukraine crisis. Secondly, on the part of Russia, Moscow is to renounce claims to the territories of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions in their entirety, while the conflict is to be frozen along the front lines. On the part of Ukraine, Kiev is to recognize all the territories controlled by Russia as Russian, including Crimea, and withdraw its troops from Donbass. Thirdly, Ukraine’s neutral, non-nuclear status is to be solidified. While pursuing EU membership, Ukraine will need to address disputes with various minorities (Russian speakers, Rusyns, etc.).

This should create conditions for a new Eurasian security framework and eliminate issues in relations between the EU/NATO and Russia. Read more This is the dangerous myth holding America hostage Thus, the ‘Spirit of Anchorage’ allows for a strategic situation in which each side could emerge from the conflict ‘without losing face’ and declare itself a formal victor. Ukraine would maintain its statehood and retain significant territory with access to the Black Sea while making progress toward European integration. Meanwhile, Russia would legally secure land access to Crimea (and the Crimean peninsula itself), thus achieving the objectives of its military campaign: demilitarization, denazification, and the protection of Donbass. To implement the compromises agreed upon in Anchorage, however, several factors must be addressed. The primary obstacle is the regime of Vladimir Zelensky. After Zelensky’s presidential term ended in 2024, he de facto usurped power under the pretext of giving the Ukrainian government extraordinary powers to consolidate the nation against an external threat. If he were to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Donbass and sign a peace agreement, Zelensky would create the necessary conditions for elections, which he would likely lose due to public fatigue from four years of war. Moreover, any potential presidential candidate (such as Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny or Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, etc.) has every chance of winning by promoting the thesis that the current authorities are to blame for the fact that a peace deal was not signed earlier. After all, a similar peace agreement could have been signed as early as April 2022, minimizing military and civilian casualties. Instead, taking advantage of the voluntary withdrawal o