Prof. Schlevogt’s Compass No. 51: Persian Armageddon, rewired – Seven repercussions of the Iran war

The US and Israel are waging a war of choice with global consequences: eroding norms, imperial decline, and a world tilting toward disorder. Dark rumor has long held that the Roman emperor Nero set Rome ablaze in search of inspiration for a song on the destruction of Troy. Judicious historians and classicists dismiss this account as apocryphal. A prosaic arsonist in the White House Today, a powerful ruler, US President Donald Trump, stands accused not by rumor, but by unfolding reality. The American leader himself has struck the match, setting not only Iran and the wider Gulf region, but the entire world, alight, all at Israel’s behest. Trump revels in the spectacle of fire on a grand scale, even as he shows no inclination to transmute destruction into epic. Seven systemic consequences, distinct yet interwoven, will reverberate globally far beyond the contingencies of the present conflict. This holds true even were the US–Israeli war of choice against Iran to cease forthwith. For the visible toll in human suffering and material destruction, grave as it is, constitutes only the most immediate and tangible register of harm. Beneath it lies a deeper and less visible yet more insidious and enduring transformation: the erosion of norms, the enfeeblement of restraint, and the gradual dislocation of an order once presumed resilient. Forces long gathering beneath the surface have been violently quickened; trajectories once gradual now race toward their culmination. What is currently set in motion most likely will come to be remembered not as an episode among many, but as a threshold: the point at which the long arc of American ascendancy bent irreversibly toward its twilight. Read more Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran 1. Diminution of America’s global status In the current age of viral geopolitics , the apt hashtag for the US-Israeli war on Iran might be: “Make America diminished again” (MADA). The US, afflicted by imperial overstretch, persists in behaving as an empire it can no longer sustain, thereby risking a long-term reversion, at best, to a position reminiscent of the pre–First World War era.

First, Trump is dismantling America’s global alliances. His conduct signals to allies that alignment with the US entails exposure without protection. Gulf partners, not consulted by the US before the war, face potential devastation from Iranian retaliatory strikes – a cost that Trump, with remarkable selfishness and callousness, appears all too willing to impose on his loyal allies. European and Asian partners, already strained by punitive American tariffs, are again harmed despite opposing the war. Given Trump’s hostile action towards friends, it comes to no surprise that core partners have hesitated to support the war by providing bases; the response to Trump’s calls for “teamwork” in securing the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Israel had caused its closure has been muted. Subsequently, Trump even exhorted allies to secure the desperately needed oil themselves, calling the massive dislocations a small price to be paid for his “excursion” to Iran. The pattern of America’s betrayal, evident in its treatment of the Kurds and Afghan allies alike, now extends system-wide. Trust, the foundation of alliance politics – above all the expectation that the US will come to the aid of its allies – is broken; and once broken, it is exceedingly difficult to restore. As in a breach of marital fidelity, the damage endures. Among other consequences, NATO itself may collapse under the corrosive strain. Remarkably, Trump even betrays his domestic allies, worsening their prospects in the upcoming midterm elections by the day; global partners will take note of how readily he abandons his friends. Second, America’s claim to act as a liberating force is profoundly discredited. Iranian oppos