Fight or flight: how the global jet fuel crisis could ground you

Airlines have started raising costs and cutting routes, increasing the risk of last-minute cancellations and disruption before the summer holiday season Europe’s summer getaway is under threat as airlines slash thousands of flights amid a deepening jet fuel crunch, raising alarm among holidaymakers. Lufthansa alone is scrapping 20,000 services through October to conserve fuel, the carrier announced on Tuesday, while airlines across the continent trim schedules as costs surge and supplies tighten. Why is this happening? The jet fuel squeeze is being driven by disruption in one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints – the Strait of Hormuz – amid the US-Israeli war on Iran. Around a fifth of global oil supply passes through the narrow route linking the Persian Gulf to world markets, making it vital to energy flows to Europe and Asia, according to the International Energy Agency. The escalation of the conflict has sharply reduced tanker traffic through the strait, with shipments delayed or halted, triggering what IEA chief Fatih Birol even warned could become the worst energy crisis in history. Read more Supply chains breaking: The hidden bottlenecks threatening to bring the global economy to a standstill Why is jet fuel affected? The EU does produce jet fuel in its own refineries, but not in sufficient volumes, which is why Europe’s aviation sector is particularly exposed to the situation in the Middle East. Around 75% of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the region, mostly Kuwait, making supplies highly vulnerable to disruptions in Gulf shipping routes. Jet fuel itself is also relatively scarce by design. Only a small share of crude oil, typically around 10%, is refined into jet fuel, meaning supply cannot easily be increased even when demand is high. How much fuel does a plane use? Jet fuel is one of the largest and most volatile costs for airlines, accounting for a significant share of operating expenses, according to industry data.

Fuel consumption varies by aircraft and route, but even short-haul jets use large volumes. A typical single-aisle aircraft such as a Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 burns around 2,500 to 3,000 liters per hour, depending on load and conditions, according to aviation estimates. Read more NATO use of key pipeline disrupts civilian jet fuel supply – Bloomberg The scale is stark: most airport fuel tankers carry 30,000 to 45,000 litres – meaning a single narrow-body jet can burn through a tanker’s load in roughly 10 hours of flight. What does this mean for my holiday? Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began on February 28. Airlines have begun passing on costs by raising fares, adding surcharges, and increasing fees for baggage and other extras, according to reports. At the same time, carriers are cutting unprofitable routes and reducing frequency, increasing the risk of last-minute cancellations and disruption. Airlines including Lufthansa, KLM, Ryanair, SAS, and Aer Lingus have already cut or cancelled flights, according to industry and media reports. Are others worried? Travelers are already showing signs of concern as uncertainty over flights grows ahead of the summer season. More Britons are opting to holiday at home due to “uncertainty over flights,” with concerns over potential cancellations and disruption linked to the jet fuel crisis, according to The Guardian. UK holiday operators have reported a sharp rise in domestic demand. READ MORE: Europe has ‘six weeks’ of jet fuel left – IEA chief Europe’s biggest holiday operator Tui has said that holidaymakers were “demonstrating increased caution and booking closer to departure dates,” according to industry reports. What is the EU doing to fix the situation? EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said on Tuesday that EU countrie