One year ago, the Middle East changed. Nobody knows what comes next.

The first direct Iran-Israel war ended an era of shadow conflict and opened a far more uncertain chapter Exactly one year ago, on June 13, 2025, the world entered a new reality. A new chapter was opened in the history of the Middle East, in the history of Iran, and in the long-running confrontation between Iran and Israel. What had spent decades unfolding as a covert, hybrid, and indirect struggle suddenly took the form of a direct military confrontation. Until that moment, the conflict between Iran and Israel had followed a different pattern. It was largely a shadow war – a contest fought through intelligence operations, cyberattacks, strikes on strategic assets and allied forces, proxy networks, diplomatic pressure, sanctions, mutual threats, and occasional missile exchanges. For years, both sides had avoided crossing the threshold into full-scale open warfare, preferring limited operations, regional partners, and carefully calibrated actions. That balance was shattered on June 13, 2025. Israel effectively moved the conflict into a new phase. From that point forward, this was no longer another episode in a cycle of regional tensions. It became a direct attack on Iran as a state. That is why the June 2025 war marked a historic turning point: for the first time, a confrontation that had largely existed in a covert and limited form evolved into an open military conflict between two of the Middle East’s most influential powers. Read more The first global meme war is over. America lost The road to war: Decades of hostility and escalating pressure The Iran-Israel rivalry did not emerge overnight. Its roots stretch back decades, shaped by political, ideological, and strategic antagonism. For Israel, Iran had long been viewed as its most significant regional adversary – one capable of altering the balance of power across the Middle East. For Iran, meanwhile, Israel was not merely an opponent but part of a broader system of pressure linked to the United States, Western sanctions, and efforts to constrain Tehran’s strategic autonomy.

At the center of this rivalry stood Iran’s nuclear program. For years, it served as a focal point for suspicion, threats, and diplomatic crises. Israel and Western governments argued that Iran could eventually move toward developing nuclear weapons. Tehran consistently maintained that its program was peaceful and intended for energy production, scientific research, and technological development. Between these competing narratives emerged a permanent zone of political pressure, where every report, inspection, and public statement became not only a technical matter but also a political weapon. When Israel experienced the trauma of October 6–7, 2023, and responsibility was placed on Hamas, it became clear that the region was entering a new phase of instability. Some Israeli politicians and analysts described Hamas as an Iranian proxy. Yet such a characterization oversimplifies – and fundamentally misrepresents – the nature of the Palestinian movement. Hamas has never been a direct instrument of Tehran. It possesses its own political logic, social base, objectives, and historical trajectory. While Iran and Hamas maintained contacts, support networks, and elements of military-political cooperation, that did not make Hamas a fully controlled Iranian entity. Israeli military vehicle is seized by the Palestinians as the Hamas armed wing al-Qassam Brigades clashes with the Israeli forces, in Gaza City, Gaza, October 7, 2023. © Ali Jadallah/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Nevertheless, after October 2023, one reality became increasingly difficult to ignore: a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel was becoming not merely possible, but increasingly likely. The question was no longer whether such a war would occur. The real questions were when it would begin, what form it would take, and ho