Lowering the nuclear threshold: Is NATO’s new ‘deterrence’ initiative a path to disaster?

Non-nuclear members of the bloc are demonstrating an eagerness to host nukes on their territory as Paris touts a new initiative European NATO members are increasingly calling for a new nuclear strategy amid a military buildup frenzy under the pretext of the alleged “Russian threat.” The bloc’s members claim that spreading nuclear arms across the continent would somehow make it safer, while Moscow warns this approach could lead to catastrophic escalation. A dozen NATO members, including those bordering Russia, have expressed a desire to either host nuclear arms on their territory or participate in nuclear-sharing initiatives to varying degrees over the past months. France has put forward a so-called “forward deterrence initiative” that would allow it to deploy its nuclear weapons to other European nations. Washington is also reportedly considering placing its nuclear arms in more NATO countries, going beyond the bloc’s controversial “nuclear sharing” program. READ MORE: US mulls placing nukes in more NATO countries – FT Multiple European officials, including from nations already hosting American nuclear weapons or willing to host them, claim that a direct confrontation between Moscow and the bloc is possible within several years, leaving an open question about where this new “deterrence” strategy could lead. ‘We have to be feared’ Back in March, French President Emmanuel Macron suggested a new nuclear-sharing framework focused on the European NATO members, calling it a “forward nuclear deterrence strategy.” Read more France to expand nuclear arsenal – Macron The scheme would allow “circumstantial deployments” of French nuclear weapons to other European states, including as part of joint exercises or short-term missions. The president also announced that Paris would no longer disclose the size of its arsenal to make sure its adversaries would be afraid of its potential while infamously claiming that “to be free, we have to be feared.” He also stated that France plans to increase its nuclear arsenal, which currently amounts to just under 300 warheads, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Macron’s vision of security included the idea that “if we had to use our arsenal, no state, however powerful, could shield itself from it, and no state, however vast, would recover from it.” Parade of volunteers The French president has seen no shortage of volunteers willing to join that vision, with a total of nine NATO nations signing up for the initiative, according to Reuters. Read more France and Poland to practice nuclear strikes on Russia – media Norway was the latest to join the group in May, as Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere cited “Russia’s massive rearmament” and the ongoing Ukraine conflict as the reason. The list also included Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK. Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and the UK are already hosting US nuclear weapons on their territory, alongside Italy and Turkiye, as part of the NATO nuclear sharing program . The scheme, which the bloc claims is fully compliant with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), allows non-nuclear NATO states to operate so-called dual-capable aircraft. Read more Poland needs nukes – president In a conflict, those aircraft could carry out nuclear strikes using American weapons upon authorization from Washington or London, even though the NPT explicitly forbids nuclear powers to transfer “control over such weapons or explosive devices directly, or indirectly” to any non-nuclear state. Warsaw has also long been seeking to join the club. Former President Andrzej Duda reportedly asked Washington to depl