'Pakistani military calling the shots: Has connections with IRCG, very good relationship with Trump'

Nadia Massih is pleased to welcome Ali Vaez, Director of Iran Project & Senior Advisor at the International Crisis Group. In this conversation, He's taking a step back from the noise of battlefield claims and political rhetoric to examine what has actually shifted beneath the surface of this conflict. While the United States presents the outcome as a decisive military victory, Vaez argues that the more consequential story lies in the Islamic regime's political survival and the reconfiguration of power within Iran.

From Tehran’s perspective, survival in the face of overwhelming force constitutes a form of victory. At the same time, this war has not left Iran unchanged. Power has tilted toward more hardline actors, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, reshaping the internal hierarchy of the Islamic Republic. What emerges, then, is not a clear-cut win or loss, but a very fragile equilibrium, one in which competing narratives and regional entanglements continue to make the ceasefire inherently unstable.